Prediction markets · Comparison tool
Check prediction market arbitrage gaps before you trust them.
Super Algo Kit treats prediction market arbitrage across venues as a comparison tool first, graded C. Buying Yes on one venue and No on another pays out either way only if both settle the event on the same terms. Fees, capital locked until resolution and different rules often explain the gap. Live trading waits for a confirmed eligibility check for your country.
strategy facts
Prediction market price gaps across venues
- Family
- Prediction market, from published literature
- Markets
- Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket in the kit's pack
- Timeframes
- 1-minute and hourly checks; positions held to resolution
- Evidence grade
- C: price gaps are visible, but no peer-reviewed study shows one you can capture after fees and resolution risk
- Status
- Literature (general prediction-market research only): not yet tested by the kit
- Default deliverable
- A cross-venue price comparison with fee and resolution-risk checks
- Eligibility
- Checked first for your country; the kit never helps you get around a venue's restrictions
- Data needed
- Order books on both venues, full fee schedules, each contract's resolution text and source, eligibility rules
From the kit's own card. Not investment advice.
Paper first
Test it before you trade it.
Super Algo Kit runs inside the coding agent you already use. It interviews you, writes the spec with pass marks set first, then builds, backtests and paper-tests. Real money starts only when you type the authorize command.
The plan, step by step
Tick them off as you go.
How does prediction market arbitrage work?
A prediction-market price reads as a probability, and one event can trade at different prices on two venues. That happens because the traders, fees, access rules and money on each venue differ.
If Yes on one venue plus No on the other costs less than the payout, the pair looks like a locked spread. It only holds if both contracts resolve on identical terms. Since money sits idle until resolution and the rules can differ, the gap is often payment for real risk rather than a free spread.
Cross-venue comparison rules in plain words
This summarises the card's sketch, which the comparison applies to every pair. A written comparison of the resolution criteria is required for each matched pair before any trade.
- Pair contracts on the event and its complete resolution rules, never on the headline.
- Cost: Yes on one venue, No on the other, plus every trading, settlement and withdrawal fee.
- Edge: payout minus cost, the cost of capital locked until resolution and a resolution-risk margin.
- Size to the thinner order book and place both legs close together.
Eligibility comes first for prediction market bots
Whether you may use a venue depends on where you live. Kalshi and Polymarket are both reported to publish country restrictions. The kit's pack marks those lists as not confirmed, so you read each venue's current terms.
Super Algo Kit never helps you get around a block with a VPN or another person's account; it offers permitted venues or tool-only options instead. Trading for other people or running a bot for clients may need registration or a licence, so the kit asks for a qualified professional's confirmation. This is not legal advice.
How Super Algo Kit tests a cross-venue idea before any money
The kit snapshots each contract's rules text and resolution source with a hash, at design time and again at trade time. Risk limits cap loss per market and per event, and cap capital locked until resolution.
The paper run uses the kit paper broker over live order books, or Kalshi's demo environment, with no real-money orders. No performance claims are made at any stage.
Before you rely on it
Where it fails.
- Resolution mismatch: each venue defines the event its own way, and both legs can lose.
- Disputes and delayed resolution can tie up money for months.
- Only one leg fills, and you are left holding a one-sided bet.
- Fees on winnings, withdrawal caps and currency conversion can eat the whole gap.
- Where you live may rule out one of the two venues.
- Venue insolvency or a frozen market.
FAQ
Cross-venue gaps: questions.
Is prediction market arbitrage risk-free?
No. A Yes and No pair across two venues pays out either way only if both venues settle the event on the same terms. Super Algo Kit grades the idea C. No peer-reviewed study shows a spread you can actually capture on today's venues once fees and resolution risk are counted.
Why can the same event trade at different prices on two venues?
Traders, fees, access rules and capital differ between venues, so prices can drift apart. The two contracts may also resolve on different sources, times or edge cases. Super Algo Kit treats the gap as possible payment for those risks, not a free spread.
Can I use a VPN to reach a prediction market from my country?
Super Algo Kit will not help with that. Using a VPN or another person's account to get around a venue's block is a hard red flag in the kit. Polymarket is also reported to forbid VPN use in its terms. The kit offers permitted venues or tool-only options instead.
What does the cross-venue comparison tool check?
It pairs contracts by event and full resolution rules, not by title. It adds every fee on both legs, the cost of capital locked until resolution and a declared resolution-risk margin. It also limits size to the thinner order book.
Can Super Algo Kit build a Kalshi or Polymarket bot?
Super Algo Kit helps your own AI coding agent build prediction-market software for Kalshi and Polymarket as real code in your project. The default deliverables are tools, such as this comparison and a calibration tracker. Live trading waits for a confirmed eligibility check and your typed authorize command.
Keep reading
More guides.
Prediction markets · Exchange APIKalshiSuper Algo Kit helps you build a Kalshi trading bot or research tool inside your own AI coding agent.
Prediction markets · Venue APIPolymarketSuper Algo Kit helps you build a Polymarket trading bot or research tool inside your AI coding agent.Claude Code · Coding agentClaude CodeSuper Algo Kit turns Claude Code into an algo trading team, so you can build your own Claude Code trading bot.Sources the kit's card cites
- Wolfers and Zitzewitz (2004). Prediction Markets. Journal of Economic Perspectives.
- Kalshi Member Agreement (restricted jurisdictions)
- Polymarket help centre: geographic restrictions
Build it with Super Algo Kit.
15 specialist roles and 35 skills inside your coding agent. Paper first, live only when you say.
Super Algo Kit is development software. It is not investment advice, a signal service or a promise of performance. Trading involves substantial risk, including the loss of all capital you trade with.