Trading tool · Event alerts
Build an economic calendar alert bot that grades its own calls honestly.
An economic calendar alert bot built with Super Algo Kit watches scheduled releases and alerts you before each one. When the number prints, it computes the surprise against consensus and grades a direction call for the dollar index, gold and BTC. It places no orders; its output is a message to you. The kit grades it N, a tool that makes no performance claim.
strategy facts
Economic release surprise alerts with graded calls
- Kind
- A tool that sends alerts to a person; it places no orders
- Family
- Event: reactions to scheduled economic releases
- Markets
- Forex, commodities and crypto spot, through the dollar index, gold and BTC
- Timeframe
- Event-driven, with prices at one-minute or finer resolution around each release
- Evidence grade
- N: a tool with no performance claim, judged on how honestly it grades its own calls
- Status
- Untested: built in a real project, never properly tested
- Source
- Owner lesson, generalised and anonymised from a real build; not a recommendation
- Data needed
- A licensed economic calendar with consensus and revisions, plus prices stamped in UTC
From the kit's own card. Not investment advice.
Paper first
Test it before you trade it.
Super Algo Kit runs inside the coding agent you already use. It interviews you, writes the spec with pass marks set first, then builds, backtests and paper-tests. Real money starts only when you type the authorize command.
The plan, step by step
Tick them off as you go.
How do economic release surprise alerts work?
A scheduled release, such as inflation, jobs data or a central-bank decision, prints an actual value next to a consensus forecast. The surprise is the actual minus the consensus, scaled by a typical surprise size. The tool sends a pre-alert, then computes the surprise when the number prints.
A rule matrix turns the indicator, the sign and the size into up, down or no call for each asset. A language model may add a short advisory note, but this tool places no orders at all. Minutes later, each call is graded correct, wrong or flat.
Alert bot rules in plain words
The kit specifies the tool before any build. Grading thresholds are declared before any grading run.
- Poll a calendar and keep each event's id, UTC time, impact, consensus and values.
- Send a pre-alert a declared number of minutes before each chosen release.
- Record the sign convention per indicator, such as higher unemployment reading as weaker.
- Grade each call after a declared delay, with a flat band for small moves.
- Persist settings, sent-alert ids and grades so a restart changes nothing.
What the evidence says, and where it breaks
The card is grade N with status untested, and the real build recorded no validated edge. Its accuracy figure was inflated, because flat moves were scored as correct.
The build had other faults too. Keyword matching by substring produced false hits, and saved settings were never reloaded after a restart. Duplicate checks lived only in memory, so a restart re-sent alerts.
How Super Algo Kit tests the alert bot
The test is an event study on past releases, using consensus and actual values as they stood at release time. Calls are scored three ways, and accuracy is reported on non-flat outcomes beside a naive baseline. Any model verdict is tested separately from the rule matrix.
Price is measured when an alert would really arrive, not at the release timestamp. Walk-forward checks follow, and every threshold change is logged as a trial. A dry run on live data then covers a restart and a duplicated calendar event.
Before you rely on it
Where it fails.
- The first move comes within seconds, so a call graded minutes later measures the aftermath.
- The link between surprise and direction is unstable; expectations, revisions and other releases shift it.
- Consensus differs between sources and moves before the release, so record which one you used and when.
- Gold and BTC react to macro data in different ways at different times; test each apart.
- Too many alerts train you to ignore them.
FAQ
Macro surprise alerts: questions.
What is an economic surprise?
An economic surprise is the gap between a release's actual value and the consensus forecast published before it. Super Algo Kit's alert tool scales that gap by a typical surprise size and records the sign convention for each indicator. It then maps the result to a call for the dollar index, gold and BTC.
Does the economic calendar alert bot place trades?
No. The economic calendar alert bot sends messages to a person and grades its own calls afterwards. Trading those calls would be a separate Super Algo Kit build with its own approval gates, risk limits and cost model.
Can an AI model make the direction call?
A language model may add a short advisory verdict. Super Algo Kit never lets a model place, change or cancel an order (hard rule H8). The model's verdict is tested separately against a naive baseline, so you can see whether it adds anything.
Can I share these macro alerts with other people?
Sharing or selling macro alerts to others can bring licensing or registration duties, depending on where you and they live. Super Algo Kit builds software only and cannot judge legality. It asks for a qualified professional's documented confirmation before that path goes any further.
Where does the economic calendar data come from?
You choose an economic-calendar source with consensus, previous values and revisions. Calendar data is usually licensed, so Super Algo Kit checks the terms before the build. Prices for the dollar index, gold and BTC come from your own data source, stamped in UTC.
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- Super Algo Kit owner-lesson card: economic-release surprise alerts with graded direction calls (generalised and anonymised from a real build).
- Related literature card in the kit: event-calendar-filter.
- Super Algo Kit reference: the Backtest Honesty Card.
- Super Algo Kit hard rule H8 and invariants INV-6 and INV-8.
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Super Algo Kit is development software. It is not investment advice, a signal service or a promise of performance. Trading involves substantial risk, including the loss of all capital you trade with.